The Effect of Legislated Reductions in the Prison Population on Crime Rates
نویسنده
چکیده
As a major aim of incarceration is to reduce crime, it is important to understand the extent to which it does so. Isolating the effect of prison on crime can be difficult because of reverse causation: higher crime rates also tend to lead to larger prison populations. This paper utilizes state legislated reductions in the prison population to address this question. These policy changes were adopted because of budget or prison overcrowding concerns, and the legislation achieved its goals by shortening sentences and releasing from prison many nonviolent offenders. Using state level data from 1982 to 2009, I estimate that these actions lead to a 9.2 percent decline in state prison populations. In two stage least squares models that use the release legislation as an instrument for prison population, results indicate that a decline in the prison population leads to a statistically significant increase in nonviolent crime rates, with an elasticity of approximately 0.367. There is no statistically significant impact of release on violent crime, which is expected given the prison population impacted by the laws. Notre Dame Economics Honors Program Senior Thesis Advised by Dr. William Evans
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